WASHINGTON — The Biden administration is increasingly alarmed by the growing military alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, fearing it could significantly boost Pyongyang’s nuclear capabilities and escalate tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, according to six senior U.S. officials who spoke to NBC News.

Potential Provocations Near U.S. Election

U.S. officials are preparing for North Korea to potentially take its most provocative military actions in a decade close to the U.S. presidential election, possibly at Putin’s urging. The timing, they suggest, could be intended to create global instability as Americans vote on whether to re-elect President Joe Biden or return former President Donald Trump to the White House.

“We have no doubt that North Korea will be provocative this year. It’s just a matter of how escalatory it is,” a U.S. intelligence official said.

North Korea's Advancements

Recently, North Korea tested a new hypersonic intermediate-range missile using solid propellants. U.S. intelligence officials have previously accused Russia of interfering in the 2016 election to help Trump. Relations between the Biden administration and Russia deteriorated sharply after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.

Expected Meetings and Military Transfers

With Putin expected to visit North Korea to meet with Kim in the coming weeks, U.S. officials anticipate that they will finalize a new deal to expand military technology transfers to Pyongyang. This technology could significantly enhance North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities.

Concerns Over Military Technology and Submarines

U.S. intelligence suggests Putin is providing North Korea with nuclear submarine and ballistic missile technology in exchange for large amounts of munitions for Russia’s war in Ukraine. North Korea is supplying more munitions to Russia than Europe provides to Ukraine, including millions of artillery shells. U.S. officials are also worried that Russia might help North Korea complete the development of a submarine capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles.

In September, North Korea unveiled a submarine based on an old Soviet model, but U.S. officials believe its capabilities were exaggerated. The submarine still requires additional technology before it can deploy or launch a nuclear missile.

Lack of Dialogue

Despite the U.S. offering to begin talks without any preconditions, there has been no significant dialogue with the Kim regime for three years. The Biden administration reached out to North Korea again this year, but received no response.

Military Technology Transfers

U.S. officials do not have a complete understanding of the types of technology Russia is providing to North Korea. Unlike physical weapons transfers, sharing military technology is harder to detect. “The higher-end Russian technical assistance comes in forms that are very difficult indeed to monitor,” a senior administration official said.

While North Korean ammunition is likely old and unreliable, it has provided Russia with a significant advantage on the battlefield, particularly at a time when Ukraine was struggling with ammunition stockpiles. In return, North Korea seeks ballistic missile parts, aircraft, missiles, armored vehicles, and other advanced technologies from Russia.

Advancements in North Korea's Missile Program

North Korea has continued to advance its missile program, including testing a solid-fuel engine for a hypersonic missile. U.S. officials warn that Russia could be assisting North Korea in achieving the final steps needed for a long-range ballistic missile capable of re-entering the atmosphere with a nuclear payload. This would pose a significant challenge for U.S. missile defense systems.

Nuclear Test Preparations

Increased activity at one of North Korea’s nuclear test facilities could indicate preparations for another test. Satellite images published by Beyond Parallel showed activity at Tunnel No. 3 at the Punggye-ri nuclear facility, suggesting North Korea is ready for a seventh nuclear test.

The Biden administration has been anticipating a nuclear test and has prepared contingency plans in coordination with South Korea and Japan. The plans include responses to potential aggressive actions by Kim, such as actions in the demilitarized zone or shelling South Korea’s border islands.

Possible October Surprise

There are concerns that Putin might encourage Kim to take provocative actions designed to influence the U.S. presidential election, known as an “October surprise.” While a second senior administration official believes Russia might hesitate to take such a step due to China's preference for regional stability, the potential for increased tensions remains high.

Strategic Shift in Russia-North Korea Relations

The growing alliance between Putin and Kim represents a significant shift from when Russia collaborated with the U.S. to curb North Korea's nuclear ambitions. Now, Russia is using its veto power on the U.N. Security Council to help North Korea evade sanctions intended to constrain its nuclear program. This shift underscores the changing dynamics of international alliances and the escalating complexity of global security challenges.