The Supreme Court concluded its term on July 1 after delivering a series of significant rulings in a busy final few weeks. Meanwhile, a new poll reveals that Americans have a growing lack of confidence in the high court and its handling of key issues.

Potential Supreme Court Vacancies

Political experts speculate that the upcoming presidential election could present an opportunity for the winner to fill one or two vacancies on the Supreme Court, a possibility that President Joe Biden has also highlighted. The question arises: which justices are most likely to retire, and would they be more inclined to do so under a Biden or Trump presidency?

Current Supreme Court Justices

- John Roberts, Jr., Chief Justice - Nominated by President George W. Bush in 2005

- Clarence Thomas - Nominated by President George H.W. Bush in 1991

- Samuel Alito, Jr. - Nominated by President George W. Bush in 2006

- Sonia Sotomayor - Nominated by President Barack Obama in 2009

- Elena Kagan - Nominated by President Barack Obama in 2010

- Neil Gorsuch - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2017

- Brett Kavanaugh - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2018

- Amy Coney Barrett - Nominated by President Donald Trump in 2020

- Ketanji Brown Jackson - Nominated by President Joe Biden in 2022

Retirement Possibilities

Supreme Court justices can retire, and the average tenure on the bench is about 16 years. The most recent retirement was Justice Stephen Breyer in 2022 at age 83, after nearly 28 years of service. He was succeeded by Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson, appointed by President Biden. Another common reason for replacement is the passing of a justice, as seen with Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg in 2020, who was succeeded by Justice Amy Coney Barrett.

Age and Service Length of Current Justices

- John Roberts, Jr., Chief Justice - 69 years old, 17 years on the court.

- Clarence Thomas - 76 years old, 33 years on the court.

- Samuel Alito, Jr. - 74 years old, 18 years on the court.

- Sonia Sotomayor - 70 years old, 15 years on the court.

- Elena Kagan - 64 years old, 14 years on the court.

- Neil Gorsuch - 56 years old, 7 years on the court.

- Brett Kavanaugh - 59 years old, 6 years on the court.

- Amy Coney Barrett - 52 years old, 4 years on the court.

- Ketanji Brown Jackson - 53 years old, 2 years on the court.

Justice Sonia Sotomayor

Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 70, nominated by President Barack Obama, has served for 15 years. Some Democrats are urging her to retire under President Biden to ensure her successor is appointed by a Democratic president. She has consistently been a liberal voice on the court and has played a crucial role in many landmark decisions. Given her age and tenure, some political strategists believe it is prudent for her to step down while a Democratic president can appoint her successor to maintain the ideological balance of the court.

Justice Elena Kagan

Justice Elena Kagan, 64, also appointed by Obama, has served for nearly 14 years. Similar to Sotomayor, there are calls for her to consider retirement during Biden's presidency. Kagan has been known for her pragmatic approach and efforts to build consensus on the court. Her departure would be significant, and ensuring a Democratic successor would help preserve her judicial philosophy.

Justice Clarence Thomas

At 76, Justice Clarence Thomas is the oldest serving justice and one of the longest-serving justices ever, with a 33-year tenure. Given his conservative views and appointment by a Republican president, he is more likely to retire under a Trump presidency. Thomas has been a pivotal conservative voice on the court, shaping its direction on issues like affirmative action, gun rights, and campaign finance. His retirement would be a major event, potentially shifting the court's balance if replaced by a nominee from a different political party.

Justice Samuel Alito

Justice Samuel Alito, 74, has been on the court for 18 years. He is another potential candidate for retirement, more likely under a Trump presidency due to his conservative standing and Republican appointment. Alito has been a steadfast conservative, particularly on issues like religious freedom, abortion, and federalism. His retirement would similarly have significant implications for the court's ideological makeup.

Chief Justice John Roberts Jr.

Chief Justice John Roberts Jr., 69, has served for 17 years. Although among the older justices, he is not immediately expected to retire but may consider it during a Trump presidency due to his conservative leanings. Roberts has been a crucial swing vote in many decisions, often seeking to maintain the court's legitimacy and stability. His departure would be closely watched, as it could alter the dynamics of the court's decision-making process.

Justices Neil Gorsuch, Brett Kavanaugh, Amy Coney Barrett, and Ketanji Brown Jackson

- Neil Gorsuch- 56, with seven years on the court, unlikely to retire soon. Known for his originalist approach, Gorsuch has influenced the court's rulings on administrative law and individual rights.

- Brett Kavanaugh - 59, with six years on the court, also unlikely to retire soon. Kavanaugh has been a key conservative voice on issues such as regulatory power and religious liberty.

- Amy Coney Barrett - 52, with four years on the court, not a retirement candidate. Barrett's presence has strengthened the court's conservative majority, particularly on social issues and executive power.

- Ketanji Brown Jackson - 53, with two years on the court, very unlikely to retire. Jackson has already made a mark with her perspectives on civil rights and criminal justice reform.

Public Confidence and the Future

As the Supreme Court faces increasing public scrutiny and speculation about potential retirements, the future composition of the court remains uncertain. The outcomes of the next presidential election could significantly influence the court's makeup and its approach to key legal issues. Public confidence in the court is crucial for its legitimacy, and any changes in its composition will be closely monitored by both political analysts and the general public.

Conclusion

The Supreme Court's recent term has underscored its pivotal role in American society, with decisions that will shape the legal landscape for years to come. As the court navigates a period of public skepticism and potential retirements, the upcoming presidential election looms large in determining its future direction. Ensuring a balance that reflects the diverse views of the American populace will be a key challenge for the next administration.