After Historic Conviction, Political Community Grapples with Implications for 2024 Election

After the historic felony conviction of a former president who is also the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, the entire political community — from candidates and strategists to academics, observers, and the media — is trying to figure out what it means now and what it will mean in November.

To say this is an unprecedented moment in our political history is an understatement. The fake pundit I’m fond of (mis)quoting these days is Doc Brown from the end of the first “Back to the Future,” when he tells Marty McFly not to worry about having enough road for the DeLorean to hit 88 miles per hour: “Where we’re going, we don’t need roads.”

I’ve been using this movie scene to explain what little we know about our own political future as we try to cut through the fog of polls.

Navigating the Uncharted Political Landscape

This is the reality of the country’s current political situation. There was a time when immoral and unethical behavior was a political death knell. But as big tech and social media have algorithmically accelerated our tribal instincts, it’s never been easier for anyone, guilty or not, to claim victimhood with some segment of the public. The red and blue tribes have an amazing ability these days to compartmentalize the bad behavior of folks on their side while crying foul about an opponent with similar or worse characteristics.

The real question of whether the verdict will impact voters lies in the hands of the two presidential campaigns. How much will the verdict be front and center versus merely setting the atmospherics?

Biden's Approval Ratings and Voter Perception

A crucial consideration is whether the verdict would matter more to voters if President Joe Biden had a higher approval rating. It’s an impossible hypothetical to test at this point, but one can’t help but wonder if some voters are overlooking Trump’s moral and ethical failings simply because they don’t think Biden is up to the current job. If Biden were in better political standing, the GOP might have gone in a different direction during the primaries.

The point is, politics is a zero-sum game, and this election presents a binary choice where the public believes it has to elect someone who is flawed. This brings us to the two types of undecided voters in this election: the aspirational and the transactional. The aspirational voter considers what’s in the best interest of the country, while the transactional voter focuses on what benefits them personally. It seems there are few aspirational voters left, but quite a few transactional voters remain.

Impact of the Verdict on Polling and Campaign Strategies

What limited polling data is available indicates that the verdict has barely moved the numbers in the last week. However, even a minor shift of 1 to 2 points could be decisive in a close election. There is a clear divide in Democratic circles about how to leverage the verdict. Your view on that may depend on whether you live in a swing state or district or in one of the blue bubbles like New York, D.C., or another deep-blue area.

In battleground states like Michigan, candidates are focusing on the economy, abortion rights, and public safety, including the border. None of the Democrats I spoke to were advocating for Biden to make Trump the centerpiece of his re-election campaign. Their fear is that a democracy-first or “Trump’s a threat”-first message will alienate more transactional voters who are fed up with their current economic situation.

Campaign Approaches: Choice vs. Referendum

When candidates are unpopular, particularly incumbents, there are two basic paths to addressing the issue. Path 1: Make the campaign a choice, not a referendum, and do your best to make your opponent the focal point. Path 2: Improve your own positives and convince voters that their initial judgment of you was wrong. Most incumbent campaigns choose the first path.

But what happens when there is so much negative information about your opponent, yet your numbers still haven’t budged? This is Biden’s current situation. There is already a substantial amount of negativity surrounding Trump; could it get worse?

Improving Biden’s Personal Ratings

Here’s a radical thought: What if Biden ignored Trump for the summer and concentrated on improving his own image with voters? In October 2020, just weeks before winning the presidency, NBC News’ poll showed that a majority viewed Biden positively, whereas Trump was underwater. Now, Biden is more underwater than Trump was in 2020. In NBC News’ April survey, Biden’s positive-negative split was 38%-52%, while Trump’s was nearly identical.

If both candidates are viewed more negatively than positively, undecided voters are likely to make a transactional decision — choosing the candidate who will do the least damage or benefit them personally. Trump has always fared better when the personal character question is neutralized. This is likely why Trump is marginally ahead of Biden right now.

The Right’s Obsession with Dr. Fauci and Its Broader Implications

The anger directed at Dr. Anthony Fauci from the right since the pandemic has been astounding. Despite his dedication to public service and his contributions to public health, Fauci has faced relentless attacks. The treatment he received at a recent House hearing, particularly from Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, was atrocious. Greene’s behavior exemplifies the current toxic political climate.

Fauci’s statement at the hearing highlights a concerning trend: “This is a powerful disincentive for young people to want to go into public health and maybe even science and medicine in the public arena... We’re not getting the best people coming in because they’re reluctant to put themselves and their family through what they see their colleagues being put through.”

This trend extends beyond public health to Congress, where we are not getting the best and brightest to stay or run for office. The hostility faced by public servants like Fauci discourages talented individuals from entering public service.

Conclusion

The political landscape following the historic felony conviction of a former president is complex and unprecedented. The upcoming election will test the impact of this conviction on voters and challenge candidates to navigate an uncharted political environment. As we approach November, the strategies adopted by the Biden and Trump campaigns will play a crucial role in shaping voter perceptions and ultimately determining the election’s outcome. The broader implications of current political dynamics, including the treatment of public servants, underscore the need for a more constructive and respectful political discourse.

Moreover, as we navigate these uncharted waters, the importance of focusing on key issues such as the economy, public safety, and fundamental rights cannot be overstated. Candidates must engage with the electorate on substantive matters that affect their daily lives, rather than solely relying on character attacks and negative campaigning.

In this unprecedented moment, the choices made by the campaigns and the responses of the voters will set the tone for the future of American politics. The upcoming months will be critical in shaping the narratives and strategies that will define the 2024 election, highlighting the importance of thoughtful, issue-driven discourse in a deeply divided nation.