Donald Trump's Guilty Verdict: Political Fallout and Future Implications

WASHINGTON — Donald Trump has been found guilty but remains unashamed. The question now is whether he will suffer politically for his crimes. The first former American president convicted at trial—found guilty Thursday on all 34 counts of scheming to help his 2016 campaign by covering up an alleged sexual encounter—Trump rallied quickly to raise money and votes from the verdict.

Immediate Reaction

Minutes after the jury delivered its verdict, Trump sent out a fundraising message to his supporters and vowed in the courthouse that "the real verdict is going to be Nov. 5 by the people" when he faces President Joe Biden in a rematch of their 2020 election. Biden echoed this sentiment, emphasizing the importance of the ballot box in a statement posted to X (formerly Twitter), along with a link to donate to his campaign. Biden refrained from taking a victory lap, uttering insults, or predicting Trump's political demise.

Trump also referred to himself as a “political prisoner” in another fundraising appeal shortly after the verdict, despite not being in prison.

Political Experts Weigh In

There is no precedent for a convicted candidate carrying a major party's banner into a general election. Many political experts say it is too early to determine whether the outcome will fuel Trump's 2024 campaign or alienate persuadable voters.

"What no one knows yet is what independent and swing voters are going to do," said Chris Kofinis, a Democratic strategist who has worked on multiple presidential campaigns.

Democrats who spoke to NBC News were divided on whether Biden might see a bump from the verdict, with some seeing genuine upside to Trump's troubles and others expressing doubt.

"This is the result we wanted and is another talking point against Trump, but it doesn’t mean a lot for actual votes," said one Biden campaign official who spoke anonymously to give an assessment without fear of retribution.

Republican Response

Republicans quickly followed Trump's lead, expressing confidence that the jury's decision would generate a powerful backlash in Trump's favor. James Blair, political director for the Trump campaign and the Republican National Committee, conducted a conference call with GOP state party chairs shortly after the result was made public.

"There's a clear message they want us to convey," one participant said of Trump's political apparatus. "It is an unjust witch hunt. We will appeal, and we will win the appeal. Guys, we just elected the next president of the United States."

Historical Context

If anyone has a playbook for this moment, it is Trump. He rode Republican outrage over his indictments in two federal and two state cases to a political rebound that helped him secure a third straight Republican nomination this year.

Despite lacking evidence of any coordination between Biden and the New York prosecutors who tried the case—much less the dozen jurors who voted unanimously to convict him on all counts—Trump accused the president of abusing his power to harm a rival. "This was done by the Biden administration in order to wound, to hurt a political opponent,” Trump said at the courthouse.

Trump's son, Donald Trump Jr., revived a controversial frame from Trump's presidency, stating on social media that the United States is now a "s---hole" country.

Democratic Perspectives

While Biden took a subdued approach to the verdict on Thursday, some Democrats believe it should help the president sway voters. "The jury verdict affirms that former President Donald J. Trump is an unprecedented criminal who occupied the Oval Office and seeks to do so again," said Rep. Joaquin Castro, D-Texas. "Joe Biden needs to remind all Americans of good conscience that such a person is completely unfit to serve as president. He's clearly a danger to democracy."

A longtime Democratic operative viewed the trial as “all upside for Biden,” suggesting it will remind voters of “the chaos of [Trump’s] presidency.” To the extent that undecided voters are dissatisfied with Biden, the operative said, “I don’t think this helps Trump become more appealing with that group.”

Republican Strategy

Republican strategist Brad Todd noted that Trump risks missing a political opportunity if he focuses too heavily on his personal grievances against Biden. "Alvin Bragg and 12 New Yorkers just elected Donald Trump—if he plays his cards right," Todd said, referring to the Manhattan prosecutor whose office tried the case. To do that, Todd said, Trump must ensure his response is aimed at voters: "not about him, but about them."

Future Implications

Trump and his campaign argue that Democrats are using the court system to deny the public a choice in the election. "This is outrageous," said Brian Ballard, a Florida lobbyist who raises money for Trump. "It’s going to help not just with small dollar donors, but with everything. The intensity both from a fundraising standpoint and from just a political energy standpoint is going to be huge. Whatever Democrats hoped to get out of this has backfired.”

Verdict Timing and Immediate Aftermath

News of the jury's verdict circulated through the Trump and Biden camps minutes before the convictions were returned. Biden's team scrambled to send messaging guidance to operatives once Trump was pronounced guilty but not before, according to a person familiar with internal deliberations.

In Trump's orbit, there were indications that a conviction would not be seen as the full victory some in the party were quick to claim. "The quickness of this decision is probably not a good sign,” a senior Trump campaign official said just before the jury rendered its judgment.

Conclusion

The political fallout from Donald Trump's guilty verdict remains uncertain. While he has quickly mobilized his base and campaign apparatus to frame the verdict as a political witch hunt, the broader impact on swing voters and the general electorate is yet to be seen. As the nation heads towards the 2024 election, the repercussions of this historic conviction will undoubtedly shape the political landscape in unprecedented ways.

The unique situation of a former president running for office while under conviction presents uncharted territory for American politics. The legal battles and their outcomes will likely be a significant focus in the upcoming election season, influencing voter perceptions and campaign strategies on both sides of the aisle.