High-Stakes Senate Race Set in Montana Between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy

One of the most pivotal Senate races of the year is now set in Montana after Democratic Sen. Jon Tester and Republican entrepreneur Tim Sheehy won their primaries on Tuesday, NBC News projects. This race is considered a critical battleground that could determine the partisan control of the Senate.

Political Landscape and Stakes

Montana, along with Ohio, where Sen. Sherrod Brown is fighting for re-election, represents a prime opportunity for Republicans to unseat a vulnerable Democrat. Former President Donald Trump carried both states by wide margins in his presidential campaigns, underscoring the challenging environment for incumbent Democrats.

Candidates' Profiles and Support

Tim Sheehy, a former Navy SEAL endorsed by Trump and supported by significant investments from national Republicans, will challenge Jon Tester’s established crossover appeal in Montana.

“I’m not going to downplay it — it’s certainly going to be a difficult race,” said Alex Bruesewitz, a GOP consultant aligned with Trump and Sheehy. “It’s not a cakewalk by any means.”

A loss for Tester could cost Democrats their narrow one-seat majority in the Senate, especially with Republicans likely to gain a seat in deep-red West Virginia, where Democratic-turned-independent Sen. Joe Manchin is not seeking re-election. Already, Montana voters are being bombarded with political ads.

Campaign Spending

By Tuesday’s primary, Democrats and Republicans had collectively spent more than $36 million on advertising, according to AdImpact, an ad-tracking firm. An additional $124 million is budgeted through the general election, with $63 million allocated for the GOP and $61 million for Democrats.

“Tim Sheehy is a strong conservative, an American hero, and a successful businessman who will bring an outsider’s perspective to a broken Washington,” said Sen. Steve Daines of Montana, chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “The clearest path to a Republican Senate majority runs through Montana. Tim Sheehy will deliver a Senate majority for President Trump, while Jon Tester wants to deliver a Senate majority for Joe Biden. That is the choice in this election. President Trump is counting on Montana to elect Tim Sheehy.”

Campaign Dynamics and Strategies

Tester and Sheehy have been circling each other for months, with neither candidate facing significant primary opposition. Trump’s endorsement and early support from the NRSC led Rep. Matt Rosendale, the GOP’s nominee against Tester in 2018, to withdraw from the primary shortly after launching his campaign.

Both candidates are attempting to paint the other as a phony. Sheehy and the GOP depict Tester, 67, as a Washington insider who has become one of the Senate’s top recipients of campaign contributions from lobbyists.

“The guy is the epitome of the swamp,” Bruesewitz said of Tester. “He’s no longer the man he was when he originally went to Washington.”

On the other hand, Tester and the Democrats emphasize the senator’s Montana dirt farm roots while portraying Sheehy, 38, as a relative newcomer who grew up in Minnesota.

Controversies and Attacks

Democrats are expected to focus heavily on Sheehy’s credibility, particularly regarding his admission of lying about the circumstances of a gunshot wound. In one account, Sheehy claimed he was wounded in combat while serving in Afghanistan. However, a report by The Washington Post revealed he had told a park ranger he accidentally shot himself while visiting a national park in Montana. Sheehy later admitted the park account was a lie, meant to deter an investigation into a combat injury he said he never reported to his superiors in 2012.

“Who lies about how he was shot?” asked Justin Barasky, a Democratic strategist. “He’s kind of his own worst enemy. And ultimately, it’ll be one side of the coin to how Sen. Tester emerges victorious. The other side obviously being that Jon embodies his state like nobody else.”

Tester allies have also highlighted issues surrounding Sheehy’s aerial firefighting company and a cattle ranch he operates with business partners. The ranch, located in prime elk country, does not allow public hunting, a contentious issue in a state with strong traditions of public land use.

Ad Campaigns and Political Messaging

Following Sheehy's primary victory, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee released a minute-long digital ad titled “Shady Sheehy,” referencing the gunshot wound and other controversies.

“Sheehy represents everything Montanans hate about rich out-of-staters, and after he’s been caught lying about every part of his life, he’s shown Montana voters why they can’t trust him to look out for anyone but himself in the Senate,” said DSCC spokesperson Amanda Sherman Baity.

Trump’s Influence

Trump’s recent conviction on 34 felony counts related to a hush money payment to an adult film actor could become a new tension point as the race shifts to the general election. Tester barely reacted to the jury’s verdict, with a spokesperson suggesting that voters would decide Trump’s fate in November. Sheehy’s campaign, however, produced a TV ad accusing Tester of participating in a political persecution of Trump, who won Montana by over 15 percentage points in 2020. The ad includes a clip from a 2019 appearance by Tester on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe,” where he spoke figuratively about the need to confront Trump and “punch him in the face” when he says offensive things.

“They want to throw Trump in jail, trying to rob Americans of their choice in the election,” a narrator says in the ad. “And Jon Tester is standing right by their side.”

Conclusion

As Montana’s Senate race heats up, the contest between Jon Tester and Tim Sheehy is set to be one of the most closely watched and heavily funded battles in the 2024 election cycle. With control of the Senate potentially hanging in the balance, both parties are gearing up for a fierce fight in Big Sky Country. As voters in Montana and across the nation watch this race unfold, the outcomes will not only shape the future of the Senate but also signal the political direction of the country heading into the next presidential election.