Politically Fraught Battle Over U.S. Southern Border Reignites with Biden's Executive Order and Arizona's Legislative Push

The politically charged debate over the U.S. southern border reemerged prominently on Tuesday as Democrats in Washington sought to address a long-standing vulnerability and Republicans in a key battleground state aimed to capitalize on the issue further.

Biden's Executive Order on Asylum Requests

President Joe Biden, facing intense criticism over the migrant influx at the border, signed a long-awaited executive order to temporarily shut down asylum requests when crossings surge. This action, reported by NBC News’ Gabe Gutierrez and Monica Alba, would take immediate effect as the average daily encounters have surpassed the 2,500 threshold.

The move marks a significant shift to the right on immigration for Biden, echoing the restrictive measures attempted by former President Donald Trump in 2018, which were blocked by the courts. Biden’s decision underscores the administration's struggle to manage the border crisis while addressing both internal and external pressures.

Arizona's Legislative Measures on Immigration

Simultaneously, more than 2,000 miles away, Arizona Republican lawmakers passed a bill to place an immigration-related measure on the November ballot. This measure would allow state and local law enforcement to detain and deport undocumented border crossers, despite court rulings that this authority resides with the federal government. NBC News’ Alex Tabet reported on the legislation, which aims to galvanize the Republican base in this crucial swing state.

The concurrent actions by Biden and Arizona Republicans highlight the issue's significance to voters and the electoral stakes involved.

Polling Data and Voter Sentiment

Polling data underscores the potency of immigration as an electoral issue. In an April NBC News poll, immigration and the border ranked second (22%) only to inflation and the cost of living (23%) as the most important issues facing the country. Additionally, 20% of voters indicated that they would vote solely for or against a candidate based on their stance on immigration, second only to protecting democracy (28%).

Notably, 69% of voters disapproved of Biden’s handling of border security, marking the lowest point of his presidency and indicating a narrow trailing behind Trump in head-to-head polling results.

Risks and Reactions

Despite the strategic moves, both Biden and Arizona Republicans face significant risks. Biden’s executive order received little credit from Republicans, who deemed it insufficient, while the liberal wing of the Democratic Party criticized it as too harsh. Meanwhile, Arizona Democrats warned that the ballot measure could backfire on the GOP, drawing parallels to the controversial 2010 state law known as SB1070, which authorized law enforcement to check the immigration status of individuals suspected of being undocumented, sparking national uproar.

Trump’s Demographic Shift and Electoral Implications

Trump's support among nonwhite voters appears to be growing, potentially altering his Electoral College strategy. Polls show him making inroads with nonwhite voters while maintaining stable support among white voters. This shift could have significant implications for traditionally diverse blue states.

For example, a recent Siena College poll in New York found Biden leading Trump by a reduced margin of 9 points, driven largely by increased support for Trump among Black and Latino voters. A narrower victory margin for Biden in diverse states like New York and California could significantly impact the national popular vote without affecting the Electoral College directly.

Electoral College Dynamics

Trump’s demographic gains could make him a strong contender in states like Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada. Flipping these states, combined with his 2020 wins, would bring him close to the required 270 electoral votes. However, he would still likely need to secure a victory in Michigan, Pennsylvania, or Wisconsin, where his demographic advantages may be less impactful.

Conclusion

The renewed focus on immigration underscores its enduring significance in American politics. Biden’s executive order and Arizona’s legislative push illustrate the complexities and high stakes involved in addressing border security. As both parties navigate this contentious issue, the electoral implications will continue to shape the political landscape leading up to the November election. The shifting demographics of Trump’s support add another layer of uncertainty, potentially altering traditional voting patterns and electoral strategies.

The actions taken by both Biden and Arizona Republicans highlight the importance of immigration in the upcoming elections. As the border issue remains a key concern for voters, both parties will need to navigate the political landscape carefully to gain an edge. The outcome of these efforts will have significant implications for the 2024 election and the future of U.S. immigration policy.