Biden Withdraws and Endorses Harris, Shaking Up the 2024 Election Landscape

On a Sunday afternoon that reverberated across the political landscape, President Joe Biden delivered a seismic announcement: he would withdraw from the 2024 presidential race. This unexpected decision marks a dramatic end to Biden's extensive half-century-long career in public service and introduces significant volatility into the race for the White House, now just four months from Election Day.

According to Peter Nicholas, Biden, at 81 years old, struggled to overcome mounting concerns within the Democratic Party regarding his age and perceived frailty. These concerns were amplified by fears of a potential defeat to former President Donald Trump in the upcoming November election. In a letter posted on X, Biden stated, “While it has been my intention to seek reelection, I believe it is in the best interest of my party and the country for me to stand down and to focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term.” He also announced plans to address the nation in greater detail later in the week.

In his letter, Biden expressed profound gratitude toward Vice President Kamala Harris, referring to her as “an extraordinary partner” and officially endorsing her as his successor. Sources familiar with the campaign reveal that Biden and Harris engaged in multiple discussions on Sunday before the public announcement.

Harris Poised for Nomination:

At 59, Harris now finds herself in a prime position to secure the Democratic nomination. Her potential candidacy represents a historic milestone: she would be the first Black woman and the first person of South Asian descent to lead a major party's ticket, as highlighted by Dareh Gregorian and Yamiche Alcindor. Nevertheless, despite Biden’s endorsement, the path to the nomination remains uncertain.

Alex Seitz-Wald and Ben Kamisar explain that although Biden has secured nearly all of the delegates for the forthcoming Democratic National Convention in Chicago, his withdrawal relinquishes his direct influence over the nomination process. Delegates, who are responsible for officially nominating the Democratic candidate, are not legally bound to support the candidate to whom they were pledged. Instead, they are required to “in all good conscience reflect the sentiments of those who elected them.”

The prospect of prominent Democrats challenging Harris remains unclear. Sahil Kapur reports that if the party unifies behind Harris, some potential future presidential candidates may pivot to competing for the vice-presidential slot. While figures such as Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro have promptly endorsed Harris, others, including Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, are adopting a cautious approach and refraining from public commentary on Biden’s succession.

Moreover, Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia, who recently left the Democratic Party to become an independent, is reportedly considering a run for the Democratic nomination, as noted by Julie Tsirkin.

Democratic Reactions:

Responses from Democratic leaders to Biden’s withdrawal have been a mix of reflection and anticipation. According to Rebecca Shabad, many Democrats have praised Biden for his achievements in office, acknowledging the significant impact of his presidency. However, the party’s reaction to Harris’s candidacy has been divided. Notable Democrats such as former President Barack Obama, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have yet to publicly endorse Harris.

Conversely, Rep. James Clyburn, former President Bill Clinton, and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton have quickly lent their support to Harris, signaling a faction of the party that is rallying behind the vice president.

Republican Reactions:

Republicans have responded with notable intensity. In an interview with Garrett Haake, Trump denounced Biden as “the worst president in the history of the United States by far,” and his campaign has begun to frame the narrative around Biden’s perceived failures. Some Republicans have suggested that if Biden is deemed unfit to seek another term, he should also consider resigning from the presidency, as reported by Sahil Kapur.

Voter Reactions:

Voter reactions have been mixed. Some supporters of Biden expressed disappointment with his decision, while others who had been leaning towards supporting him are now energized by the prospect of a new candidate potentially performing better against Trump. The shifting dynamics have prompted considerable speculation regarding how this change might influence voter sentiment.

Rapid Changes of the Past Month:

The political landscape has undergone rapid changes over the past month—from debates to Biden’s withdrawal. Shannon Pettypiece and Mark Murray outline how these developments have dramatically reshaped the 2024 election scenario.

Polling Insights on Harris vs. Trump:

A significant challenge for Harris is her current polling performance. Surveys conducted prior to Biden’s withdrawal show that she has been polling similarly to or slightly better than Biden against Trump. NBC News’ latest national poll, conducted more than a week after Biden’s disappointing debate performance but before the assassination attempt on Trump, shows both Biden and Harris trailing Trump by narrow margins. Trump leads Biden 45% to 43%, and Harris 47% to 45%, with these differences falling within the polls' margin of error.

A post-debate Fox News poll indicated that Trump was ahead by 1 point against both Biden and Harris, with Trump at 49% to Biden’s 48% and Trump at 49% to Harris’s 48%. However, other polls have shown Harris slightly outperforming Biden by 1 or 2 points, though still trailing Trump in some key matchups.

A CBS News/YouGov poll conducted after the assassination attempt showed Trump leading Biden by 5 points among likely voters and Harris trailing by 3 points. New York Times/Siena College battleground polls indicated that Harris performed 2 points better than Biden in Pennsylvania and Virginia. Despite these variations, each result remains within the respective polls' margins of error, and it remains to be seen how the announcement of Biden’s exit will influence these figures.

As the political landscape continues to evolve, all eyes will be on how the Democratic Party navigates this unprecedented shift and how Harris positions herself in the battle against Trump.