Prime Minister Narendra Modi embarked on a pivotal two-day diplomatic mission to Russia on Monday, marking his first official visit since Moscow initiated its invasion of Ukraine. This visit carries significant implications amidst the evolving dynamics between these long-standing allies, compounded by Russia's evolving geopolitical alliances and its closer alignment with India's regional competitor, China.

Modi's agenda includes a crucial meeting with President Vladimir Putin, their first face-to-face encounter since their last gathering in Vladivostok in 2019 and subsequent summit in Uzbekistan in 2022 under the auspices of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).

India and Russia have nurtured strong ties since the Cold War era, with India emerging as a pivotal trading partner for Moscow, a relationship that has gained prominence following Russia's military actions in Ukraine in February 2022. Amid global sanctions that curtailed Russian exports to Western markets, both India and China have significantly bolstered their imports of Russian oil.

Under Modi's stewardship, India has maintained a posture of neutrality regarding Russia's military engagements in Ukraine, advocating steadfastly for peaceful conflict resolution.

Nevertheless, strains have surfaced in the Russia-India partnership as Moscow deepens its alignment with Beijing, partly influenced by fallout from the Ukrainian crisis. Modi's recent decision to forego attending the SCO summit in Kazakhstan underscores India's cautious approach in forums where Russia and China wield substantial influence.

Chietigj Bajpaee, a senior fellow at Chatham House, underscores India's strategic recalibration in response to these developments, highlighting apprehensions over Russia's growing rapport with China amid heightened regional tensions.

The Sino-Indian relationship itself has been tense since a deadly clash along their disputed border in June 2020, exacerbating complexities in India's approach towards Moscow.

Former Indian ambassador to Russia, D. Bala Venkatesh Verma, emphasized India's concerns regarding Russia's deepening ties with China amidst Beijing's assertive posturing in the region.

Despite these challenges, Modi's visit aims to reinforce India's enduring partnership with Russia, vital as a major supplier of defense equipment and a key trading ally. While India remains reliant on Russian military hardware, efforts are underway to diversify defense procurement by engaging with suppliers such as the U.S., Israel, France, and Italy.

Defense cooperation remains pivotal in bilateral relations, with ongoing negotiations for a military logistics agreement aimed at enhancing operational exchanges despite disruptions caused by the Ukraine conflict.

India's neutral stance on Ukraine has positioned it uniquely in global discourse, advocating for dialogue to resolve the conflict while refraining from outright condemnation of Russia's actions. This stance aligns with Putin's efforts to counterbalance Western dominance in global affairs, bolstering his international standing amidst challenges from the International Criminal Court.

Trade discussions during Modi's visit will prioritize strategic initiatives, including the proposed maritime corridor linking India's Chennai port to Vladivostok, aimed at bolstering connectivity and economic collaboration between the two nations.

According to Indian Foreign Secretary Vinay Mohan Kwatra, bilateral trade surged to nearly $65 billion in the fiscal year 2023-24, buoyed by robust energy cooperation. Efforts are underway to address trade imbalances by expanding Indian exports to Russia, encompassing pharmaceuticals, telecom equipment, and machinery.

As Modi engages with Putin, this visit holds promise in reinforcing ties amidst shifting geopolitical dynamics, navigating challenges while leveraging shared interests in defense, trade, and strategic cooperation to deepen the Russia-India partnership.