Impact of a Citizenship Question on Census Participation: Insights from Recent Research

The recent research released this summer underscores the adverse effects that the inclusion of a citizenship question on the U.S. Census could have on participation rates among non-citizens, with a particular impact on individuals from Latin American countries. This study, conducted collaboratively by the U.S. Census Bureau and the University of Kansas, highlights the potential consequences for census accuracy and the risk of exacerbating undercounts among specific demographic groups.

Key Findings of the Study

The study finds that non-citizens who contribute to tax revenues but lack Social Security numbers are less likely to complete the census questionnaire or may provide incomplete responses if a citizenship question is included. This issue could lead to an increased undercount of particular populations. Specifically, the research indicates that the inclusion of a citizenship question significantly affects participation rates among individuals from Latin American countries. In contrast, U.S.-born Hispanic residents and non-citizens from regions outside Latin America exhibit less sensitivity to the inclusion of this query.

Political Context and Legislative Efforts

The release of this research paper coincides with ongoing legislative efforts by Republican lawmakers to incorporate a citizenship question into the census. Their objective is to potentially exclude non-citizens from the census count, which directly influences the distribution of political representation and federal funding. The 14th Amendment to the U.S. Constitution mandates that all individuals residing in the country, regardless of citizenship status, be counted in the census.

In May, the Republican-controlled House of Representatives passed a bill aimed at excluding non-citizens from the census count used to determine Congressional representation and Electoral College votes. However, this bill faces significant opposition in the Democratic-controlled Senate. Additionally, an upcoming appropriations bill containing similar language, which seeks to exclude individuals in the country illegally from the count used for redistricting, is expected to be considered by the House in the near future.

During a recent House appropriations committee meeting, Democratic Representative Grace Meng of New York condemned the exclusionary proposal as an "extreme measure" that would undermine the accuracy of the census. Representative Meng argued that disregarding the presence of non-citizens in communities would compromise the work of the Census Bureau and divert resources away from areas in critical need.

Conversely, Republican Representative Andrew Clyde of Georgia argued that including non-citizens in the count provides state and local governments with incentives to attract these populations to boost their political influence and representation. Representative Clyde maintained that each non-citizen included in the count diminishes citizens' ability to determine their political representatives.

Historical Context and Methodology

The next national census will occur in 2030. The recent study revisits findings from a 2019 trial survey conducted by the Census Bureau in preparation for the 2020 census. This trial survey aimed to assess the impact of including a citizenship question amidst the Trump administration’s attempt to add such a question to the 2020 census. Concerns existed that a citizenship question might deter participation among Hispanics and immigrants, irrespective of their legal status. Additionally, a Republican redistricting expert had previously suggested that using the citizen voting-age population for redistricting purposes could benefit Republicans and non-Hispanic whites.

The U.S. Supreme Court blocked the addition of the citizenship question to the 2020 census in 2019. The trial survey involved sending questionnaires to 480,000 households, with half of the questionnaires including a citizenship question. Preliminary findings indicated that while overall response rates might not have been significantly affected, the addition of the citizenship question was likely to impact participation in bilingual neighborhoods with substantial populations of non-citizens, Hispanics, and Asians.

The new study, focusing on individual households rather than census tracts, utilized administrative records to evaluate the impact of a citizenship question. The researchers concluded that the inclusion of a citizenship question would have increased the undercount of households with non-citizens.

Impact on Census Accuracy and Representation

The 2020 census results revealed a net undercount of 3.3% for the Black population, nearly 5% for Hispanics, and 5.6% for American Indians and Native Alaskans living on reservations. Conversely, the non-Hispanic white population experienced a net overcount of 1.6%, and Asians had a net overcount of 2.6%. These discrepancies highlight the critical importance of accurate census data in determining the allocation of Congressional seats and Electoral College votes, as well as guiding the distribution of approximately $2.8 trillion in annual federal spending.

Conclusion

The recent research underscores the significant implications of including a citizenship question on the census, particularly its potential to reduce participation among non-citizens and certain demographic groups. This issue remains highly pertinent as legislative efforts continue to influence the future of census administration and representation in the United States. The findings emphasize the necessity of carefully considering how census questions impact the accuracy of the count and the equitable distribution of political and financial resources.