Sixteen Nobel Prize-winning economists issued a collective warning on Tuesday, highlighting potential economic risks should former President Donald Trump secure a second term in office, particularly emphasizing concerns about a resurgence in inflation.

In a joint letter initially reported by Axios, the economists reiterated their consensus on the superiority of President Joe Biden’s economic agenda compared to Trump’s proposed policies. They expressed apprehension that Trump’s return could rekindle inflationary pressures, attributing this potential risk to what they characterized as his "fiscally irresponsible budgets."

Led by Nobel laureate Joseph Stiglitz, who spearheaded the letter, the group included prominent figures such as George Akerlof, Sir Angus Deaton, Claudia Goldin, Sir Oliver Hart, Eric Maskin, Daniel McFadden, Paul Milgrom, Roger Myerson, Edmund Phelps, Paul Romer, Alvin Roth, William Sharpe, Robert Shiller, Christopher Sims, and Robert Wilson.

The economists cautioned that Trump’s proposed measures, including plans to make his initial-term tax cuts permanent and imposing substantial tariffs on imports, particularly targeting China, alongside exerting pressure on the Federal Reserve to reduce interest rates, could potentially exacerbate inflationary pressures. This concern resonates with forecasts from independent research entities such as Evercore, Allianz, Oxford Economics, and the Peterson Institute, all predicting an uptick in inflation under Trump’s economic policies.

Stiglitz underscored the significance of the economists’ intervention, highlighting public polling indicating a preference for Trump over Biden in economic management, despite their contrasting economic strategies. He emphasized their letter as a counterpoint to prevailing perceptions, aiming to provide the public with a credible alternative perspective.

The timing of the letter, released just ahead of the first presidential debate between Trump and Biden, hosted by CNN, underscores its role in framing the anticipated economic discourse during the campaign. The debate is expected to prominently feature discussions on economic issues, particularly focusing on inflation and contrasting economic policies.

In response to the economists’ warning, the Trump campaign dismissed their concerns, with spokesperson Karoline Leavitt asserting that Americans should evaluate economic performance based on personal experiences rather than the opinions of Nobel laureates.

Conversely, the Biden campaign seized upon the economists’ endorsement, using it to bolster their position that Trump’s economic agenda poses significant risks to the nation’s economic stability.

The letter also carried a political dimension, recalling a similar endorsement of President Biden’s Build Back Better plan in 2021, which faced criticisms for potentially fueling inflation. Stiglitz defended the initiative then, arguing against short-term inflation fears and emphasizing its long-term benefits.

Reflecting on recent economic trends, Stiglitz credited Biden’s administration for effectively managing inflationary pressures that emerged in 2023, attributing this success to robust economic policies implemented in response to disruptions caused by the pandemic. He acknowledged the role of government subsidies, such as the expanded Child Tax Credit and the Paycheck Protection Program, in stabilizing the economy and mitigating inflationary spikes.

Overall, the economists’ letter not only critiques Trump’s economic proposals but also underscores the pivotal role of economic policy in shaping national discourse and influencing electoral outcomes, setting the stage for a contentious debate over competing visions for America’s economic future.